mobile is stupid. and i don't want any.

Raindrops keep fallin' on my head
And just like the guy whose feet are too big for his bed
Nothin' seems to fit
Those raindrops are fallin' on my head, they keep fallin'

--

I've come across a barrage of stuff lately that tells me Americans don't quite get this m thing yet:

- One third of Americans don’t use SMS
- Two thirds said nothing would motivate them to listen to music on a mobile
- QR codes are failing at a campus test at Case Western

I'm also catching flak from some thoughtful readers, including Ted Theodore Logan (Esq?) who points to a recent study that says although iPhone users are generally happy, many still carry another phone and that the primary activity most use their phone for is a rather pedestrian "checking email".

So what's the deal?

Well. To be blunt, Americans are behind. If you had conducted a survey in 1995, I'm sure a third of Americans weren't using email and that two-thirds would have said that they would never store their music collection on their computer. And that a campus test of online social networking would have failed. Consider 2008 mobile's 1995. or maybe even 1998.

We're not there yet, I acknowledge that. But that's also part of the point of this blog: to help those beyond the early adopters understand why it may make sense to give the m class a shot. Why bother preaching to those who don't get it yet? Because being connected is more fun when somebody else is on the other end of the line.

We are getting closer. And, the good news is we have two good road maps for how mobile will evolve:

1) The adoption curve of the internet in the US
2) The adoption curve of mobile in the rest of the world

I'm not going to rehash point one. If you're reading a blog you understand what I'm talking about. And no - mobile won't perfectly parallel the way the web evolved because a mobile device is fundamentally different from a desktop or laptop computer.

The adoption curve of mobile in other part of the world, particularly Asia, and especially in South Korea - where mobile networks are faster, data rates are cheaper, and mobile payments are commonplace - is what I think is really worth paying attention to. Did you know:

That in 2006, South Koreans sent an average of 268 text messages a month. (US: 18.5)
One third of the SK student population sends over 100 text messages a day
40% of SK cell phones were 3G in 2006. (UK: 6%)
45% of all music sold in SK is direct to cellphones
46% of SK use their cell phones to make mobile payments

Clearly South Korea is ahead. And that's okay -- it gives us a sense of where things are going.

As I've said before, I think two big barriers are the cost of data and the quality of handsets. Both of these are changing. To that, I'd also like to add another element that is a barrier to m2 & m3: the speed of networks.

Again, the US is behind here. 3G networks are just getting rolling here and they've been widespread in Europe and Asia for awhile now. The iPhone will lead the charge here by driving consumer demand - but we'll have to wait for the next gen 3G model for the carriers to get their act together and enable primary usage to move beyond email.

(It's true -- consuming content that hasn't been optimized for the iPhone is slow. The idea of doing something as simple as posting a blog from my phone is a little silly. And no, flash doesn't work. )

So you can say you don't want any. Just like you didn't want email. And like you thought the internet was a fad.

Rain on my parade as you like, but I'll see you in the m class sooner or later. And it will be via video chat on our phones.

(hopefully not while driving)